000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252055
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very 
powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds 
measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and 
since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple 
millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak 
wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which 
corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental 
wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an 
initial intensity of 155 kt. 
 
The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall 
replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be 
having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that 
fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h 
while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is 
expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat 
content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it 
is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the 
weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of 
the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast, 
with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion 
for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still 
expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this 
weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered 
over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough 
approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to 
turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central 
Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental 
WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of 
the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h 
and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with 
this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus 
and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast 
track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur 
as soon as tonight.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for
portions of the area.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky