000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311443
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 AM HST Fri Jul 31 2026

Genevieve is mainly comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level 
clouds with some convective banding near the center and in the 
northwestern quadrant. Satellite intensity estimates continue to 
decrease, with most of them suggesting an intensity near 50 kt. 
That will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. 
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should 
steer it generally west-northwestward for the next three days or 
so. After that time, a turn toward the northwest is forecast due to 
the ridge breaking in response to a mid- to upper-level trough 
forming north of 20N between 140-160W. The track guidance remains 
in good agreement with this scenario, and the new official forecast 
is again almost identical to the previous forecast.

Sea surface temperature analyses indicate that Genevieve is 
approaching a small patch of warmer water with temperatures near 
25C. This should result in a slight increase in the water 
temperature under the core of the cyclone for the next 18 h or so. 
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for a pause in the 
weakening from 12-24 h, followed by resumed steady weakening as the 
system again encounters cooler water and is affected by increasing 
shear. The new intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to 
decay to a remnant low by 60 hr.  The global models are in good 
agreement that the remnant low will persist for several days after 
the convection dissipates, and this is reflected in the forecast. 
It should be noted that if the convection does not persist during 
Genevieve's passage over the warmer water, the cyclone could 
degenerate to a remnant low earlier than currently forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/1500Z 22.1N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 22.6N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 23.4N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 24.2N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 25.1N 139.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 26.1N 141.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z 27.2N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z 29.9N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z 33.3N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven