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Tropical Storm Paine Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 050251
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

During the past few hours, convection associated with Paine has 
decreased significantly, as most of the cold cloud tops near the 
center are currently comprised of cirrus debris.  This decrease has 
not yet affected the various satellite intensity estimates, which 
remain in the 35-40 kt range.  The initial intensity is thus held 
at 40 kt, but this could be generous.

The window of opportunity for Paine to strengthen is just about 
closed.  The cyclone is starting to encounter increasing westerly 
vertical wind shear, and it is embedded in a dry air mass that may 
make it difficult for the convection to re-develop.  Indeed, 
simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS run suggests the 
possibility that the convection may not return even at the normal 
diurnal maximum in about 12 h.  The intensity forecast calls for 
gradual weakening, with the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low 
between 24-36 h and dissipating completely between 60-72 h.  Both 
of these events could happen earlier if the convection does not 
re-develop.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 325/5 kt.  This motion 
should persist for the next 12 h or so.  After that, a slow motion  
toward the west-northwest and west is anticipated as the weakening 
Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level 
flow. The new official forecast is basically an update of the 
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven