000
WTPZ42 KNHC 302033
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 30 2026
 
Genevieve is weakening today. Visible satellite imagery shows two 
main convective bands wrapping around the center, and the eye is 
obscured by cold cloud top temperatures less than -50 C. An earlier 
RCM-2 pass showed a slightly elongated eye, but the weakening 
hurricane maintains an otherwise generally symmetric structure. 
Objective intensity estimates continue to trend downward, ranging 
from 57-67 kt. Given the degraded visible and infrared satellite 
appearance and the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set 
at 65 kt.

Genevieve continues to move along a west-northwestward heading 
today, guided by a strengthening ridge to the north. This general 
motion will prevail over the next 72 h or so. By early next week, a 
strong upper-level trough will advance toward the western U.S. and 
evolve into a cutoff low, steering Genevieve toward the northwest 
then north-northwest. The latest forecast track has been nudged 
slightly farther south than the previous forecast, but remains close 
to the middle of the consensus aids, close to HCCA and the Google 
DeepMind.

The hurricane has moved into cool waters and is experiencing dry 
mid-level air and unfavorable upper-level dynamics. These factors 
will lead to further steady weakening over the next several days. 
Global model guidance suggests that Genevieve may struggle to 
produce deep organized convection this weekend, and the forecast 
calls for the system to become post-tropical by 72 h, and a remnant 
low early next week. The new forecast intensity remains very similar 
to the previous advisory, and is near the middle of the consensus 
guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 20.8N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 21.2N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 21.9N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 22.7N 132.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 23.6N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 24.4N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 25.4N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  03/1800Z 27.7N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 30.9N 146.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven