000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300836
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this evening. Moderate 
easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the 
deep convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. 
With little change in the satellite presentation, a blend of a 
scatterometer pass this evening, the latest objective intensity 
estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB 
supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Lowell is moving westward, or 270/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge 
positioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering 
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued 
generally westward motion. The track guidance remains in relatively 
good agreement during this period. Thereafter, considerable 
cross-track spread persists, likely due in part to the potential 
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering 
flow. The latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have changed 
little over the past several cycles and remain near the southern 
edge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS, regional hurricane 
models, and simple consensus (TVCN) continue to favor a gradual 
west-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the forecast 
period. Given the considerable spread among these solutions, the 
latest NHC track forecast continues to reflect a blend of the 
previous forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and 
should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear 
is forecast to decrease during the next day or so, which should 
allow the cyclone to become better organized. Gradual strengthening 
is forecast through about 36 h, followed by a faster rate of 
intensification through 72 h as environmental conditions become more 
favorable. Although some mid-level dry air could limit the rate of 
intensification, all of the intensity guidance supports continued 
strengthening, with Lowell forecast to become a hurricane in about 
48 h, with some additional strengthening thereafter. The intensity 
forecast becomes increasingly uncertain later in the period due to 
Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A slower and more 
northwestward track, as shown by the GFS and some of the regional 
hurricane models, would bring Lowell closer to Karina and could 
expose the cyclone to stronger vertical wind shear associated with 
Karina's outflow, resulting in a weaker cyclone. Conversely, a 
farther-south track would likely keep the two cyclones sufficiently 
separated and allow Lowell to maintain its strength or continue 
strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the 
middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the consensus 
(IVCN).
 
Lowell is forecast to reach the central Pacific basin in the next 
few hours, and the next advisory will be issued by the Central 
Pacific Hurricane Center at 1500 UTC/500 AM HST. Users will not need 
to change where they obtain information on Lowell, which will 
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 13.2N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs