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Tropical Storm Paine Forecast Discussion


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755 
WTPZ42 KNHC 050844
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172022
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

The satellite presentation of Paine has degraded during the past 
several hours.  Apart from one small burst of convection being 
sheared away from the center, the cyclone is generally just a 
low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen and 
the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt. 
Global models indicate that moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear 
and increasingly dry mid-level air will prevent Paine from 
intensifying in the future.  Simulated satellite imagery from these 
models also suggests that little or no new deep, organized 
convection is likely to form.  The official forecast now shows Paine 
becoming a remnant low within 12 hours.

Paine is passing just east of Clarion Island while moving northwest 
at about 4 kt.  This motion is expected to gradually turn to the 
west-northwest and west today as the shallow vortex is steered by 
the low-level winds.  The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly 
south of the previous forecast track and near the center of the 
model guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 18.3N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci