000
WTPZ42 KNHC 291438
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
 
Genevieve is feeling the impacts of moderate northwesterly shear and 
mid-level dry air this morning. In addition, an earlier AMSR-2 
microwave satellite pass indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle 
had started early this morning, and a new eyewall is becoming 
evident on infrared and first light visible satellite imagery. As a 
result of this process, warming cloud tops are noted to the south 
and west of the eye, and new convection on the north and east side 
are leading to colder cloud tops less than -70 C. Objective 
satellite estimates range from 81-99 kt, and the latest TAFB 
estimate was 5.5/102 kt. The initial intensity is set at a 
potentially generous 100 kt for this advisory. 
 
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 7 kt, 
wedged between a strong mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. 
and northern Mexico and weak ridging to the northwest. This general 
motion and a slight increase in forward speed is forecast through 
the rest of this week into this weekend as the aforementioned 
mid-level ridge expands westward into the eastern Pacific. Later 
this weekend, Genevieve will turn toward the northwest then 
north-northwest ahead of an upper-level low developing northwest of 
the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory and falls between the latest corrected (HCCA) and 
simple (TVCN) consensus aids.
 
The eyewall replacement cycle has led to the weakening of Genevieve 
this morning. Further weakening is expected through tonight as the 
hurricane experiences moderate northwesterly shear. On Thursday, 
Genevieve is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and move into an 
increasingly dry mid-level environment into this weekend, supporting 
additional weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been 
adjusted further downward during the next 48 h, and still remains on 
the higher end of the consensus guidance. Genevieve is forecast to 
fall below hurricane strength by Friday and become post-tropical on 
Saturday, when the system may struggle to produce organized 
convection.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 18.8N 119.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 19.2N 120.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 19.9N 123.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 20.6N 125.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 21.4N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 22.1N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 23.0N 133.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 24.7N 139.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  03/1200Z 26.9N 143.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven