000
WTPZ42 KNHC 282037
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
 
Recent satellite imagery shows dry air entrainment along the 
northern and western side of the eye, resulting in some erosion of 
the structure of Genevieve. An earlier SSMIS pass continued to show 
a minor amount of northerly wind shear. Small fluctuations in 
strength have likely occurred this morning and afternoon, as 
evidenced by changes in the appearance of the eye and warming, 
followed by cooling, cloud top temperatures in the eyewall. The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.5/102 
kt, while the objective estimates range from 97-107 kt. Given these 
estimates and taking into account the evolving satellite 
presentation, the initial intensity has been set at 105 kt.
 
Genevieve is moving west-northwestward at around 8 kt along the 
southwestern periphery of a ridge centered over the central and 
southern United States. A slightly faster forward speed is 
anticipated during the latter half of the week as the ridge expands 
westward and a strengthening upper-level low approaches the 
northwestern U.S. The track guidance shifted slightly farther south 
on this forecast cycle, and the official forecast has followed suit, 
and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, close to HCCA. By 
late this weekend, guidance begins to diverge, and the forecast is 
positioned between the previous forecast track and HCCA.

After small fluctuations in strength today, Genevieve will gradually 
weaken as it moves over progressively cooler sea-surface 
temperatures and into a drier mid-level environment. On Thursday, 
Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N, where SSTs fall below 26 
C, resulting in faster rate of weakening through the weekend. The 
latest NHC official intensity forecast shows Genevieve weakening to 
a tropical storm in a couple of days, and transitioning to a 
post-tropical cyclone this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 18.0N 116.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 18.4N 118.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 19.0N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  31/0600Z 21.1N 126.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  31/1800Z 21.8N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 23.3N 134.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 25.3N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven