022 
WTPZ42 KNHC 280834
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
 
Genevieve remains a powerful major hurricane, but it is gradually 
losing strength.  Although the cyclone is maintaining a distinct 15 
n mi diameter eye, deep convection in the eyewall has become a 
little less symmetric with some dry slots occasionally evident in 
the northwestern quadrant.  The 06Z satellite intensity estimates 
range from 105 to 120 kt, and based on that data, the initial 
intensity is nudged downward to 120 kt, but this could be a little 
generous.  A Synthetic Aperture Radar pass did hint at the 
possibility of a secondary eyewall beginning to form, but 
unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave images to 
confirm that.  An ASCAT pass from around 04Z was helpful in updating 
the initial wind radii.
 
The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy appears straightforward.  A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to expand
westward over the next few days, and that should cause Genevieve to
move at a faster pace to the west-northwest later this week and into
the weekend.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC
forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance envelope, placing 
greater weight on the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions.
 
Although there could be some fluctuations in Genevieve's strength
in the short term due to the potential of an eyewall replacement
cycle, weakening should be the primary theme during the remainder
of the week due to progressively cooler waters and drier air along
the forecast track.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and calls for Genevieve to fall
below hurricane strength in a few days and become post-tropical
this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 17.5N 115.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 18.6N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 19.1N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 19.8N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 21.3N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 22.7N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 24.5N 137.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi