345 
WTPZ42 KNHC 020237
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026
 
Since the previous advisory, the satellite presentation of Genevieve 
has been relatively stable. Most of the deep convection is limited 
to an area northeast of the center, consistent with light shear out 
of the west-southwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite 
intensity estimates range from about 35-40 kt. These estimates are 
largely the same as the last advisory cycle, and with the steady 
satellite presentation supports maintaining the intensity of the 
tropical storm at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is 
unchanged from the last advisory. This general motion will continue 
through the end of the weekend as the cyclone is steered by a deep 
layer ridge located to the northeast. By Monday, Genevieve will 
decelerate and turn to the northwest as a post-tropical cyclone, as 
the aforementioned ridge retreats to the east. The track forecast is 
very similar to the last advisory, except we show a slower forward 
motion beyond 60 h. This forecast remains close to the Google 
DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus Aid (HCCA).

Genevieve is currently over 23-24 deg C SSTs, which are likely to 
stay within this range through the forecast period. The mid-level 
environment around the tropical storm is dry. The current light 
vertical wind shear is likely to increase later today through early 
next week, and this increasing shear should herald the degeneration 
of this system into a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. The intensity 
forecast shows steady weakening over the next few days, and then 
dissipating by 96 h. This is similar to the previous advisory. It is 
noted that Genevieve is forecast to retain gale-force winds for some 
time after it becomes post-tropical.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 23.5N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 24.3N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 25.2N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/1200Z 26.1N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0000Z 26.9N 144.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 27.7N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 28.7N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Pierce/Cangialosi