Hurricane Barbara Forecast Discussion
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394 WTPZ42 KNHC 092032 TCDEP2 Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022025 200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 Since the last advisory Barbara has become a little less organized. Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts the system starting to ingest some drier air which has caused fragmented banding. However, a central dense overcast has remained over the tiny inner core. The satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly from the previous advisory ranging from 50 to 65 kt. Using these estimates, the intensity is held at 65 kt, although this may be generous. A mid-level ridge located over Mexico should continue to steer the system northwestward over the next couple of days. As Barbara begins to weaken into a shallow vortex and slow down, it will be steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected consensus. Barbara likely has peaked as a short-lived hurricane. The environmental conditions will becoming increasingly hostile along the forecast track with the storm crossing into cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air mass. This will cause the system to steadily weaken, lose convective organization, and become post tropical by 36 h. The latest NHC forecast shows the system opening into a trough by 60 h and dissipating. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mora/Kelly