000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232040
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026

Vance has become better organized since the last advisory with the 
formation of a well-defined eye inside the central dense overcast. 
Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 83-104 kt 
range, and based on these data the initial intensity is increased 
to 90 kt. Although the central features of the hurricane are better 
defined, the outer banding seen earlier has become fragmented, and 
arc clouds that suggest the presence of dry air are seen southwest 
of the CDO.

The intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The 
eye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder 
sea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat 
content. This should soon bring the current intensification to a 
halt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a 
major hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over 
the cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly 
vertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination 
should cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken 
more than forecast during this period.  After 48 h, Vance should 
move north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time 
calls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by 
the HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and 
possible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet 
again.  As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of 
the forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a 
longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time 
the center spends over the cold pool. 

After the westward jog seen earlier today, Vance has resumed a 
northwestward motion of 325/4 kt.  The hurricane is currently being 
steered by a weak mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico and the 
eastern Pacific, and later in the forecast period it will come under 
the influence of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western 
United States as well as the adjacent portions of northern Mexico 
and the northeastern Pacific. While the dynamical models agree on 
the general synoptic pattern, the track forecast is complicated by 
the possibilities of how strong and vertically stacked Vance will 
be. A stronger and more vertically stacked storm, especially as 
depicted in the GFS, will likely move slowly toward the 
north-northwest and north during the forecast period. On the other 
hand, the UKMET and Canadian models forecast Vance to be weaker and 
shear apart vertically, with the low-level center being steered more 
to the northwest before eventually turning northward.  While the 
current structure makes such a shearing apart unlikely in the short 
term, it is possible that Vance could shear apart between 24-48 h if 
it weakens more than forecast, and at that point it could turn more 
northwestward.  The forecast track leans toward Vance staying 
vertically coupled, and it is in the best overall agreement with the 
Google Deepmind ensemble mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and the 
Florida State Superensemble. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 11.2N 102.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven