000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280235
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Polo is approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a powerful 
major hurricane. Satellite images suggest that the cyclone is 
maintaining its intensity with a ragged eye feature persisting, 
surrounded by intense deep convection. The cloud pattern is a little 
asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently located over the 
western half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity 
estimates are largely unchanged, and generally range from 100 to 115 
kt. Based on that data and steady state appearance, the initial wind 
speed is held at 110 kt.

The major hurricane is moving northward at about 10 kt on the 
western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern 
Mexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday as a trough 
amplifies over California, taking the core of the hurricane over the 
Baja California Peninsula Monday afternoon or evening. Polo is then 
expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of California before making a 
second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico Monday night or 
early Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous 
forecast, and this one lies near the best-performing models of the 
year so far, HCCA and GDMI.

No significant change in strength is expected before Polo reaches 
Baja California, and based on the model guidance, it seems likely 
to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes 
landfall there. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase 
in wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still 
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After 
the second landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged 
terrain of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one, and in good agreement with the majority of the 
guidance.
 
Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the 
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the 
southwestern United States during the next few days, and may 
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in 
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for 
more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula as a hurricane late Monday, within the 
Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin to 
deteriorate there Monday morning, making further preparations 
difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to 
spread across Baja California through Monday and into mainland 
Mexico on early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, especially in 
areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California 
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora Monday into 
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo 
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the 
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late Monday into 
Tuesday.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 22.8N 114.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N 113.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.9N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 28.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 31.3N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi