000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250834
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
300 AM CST Sat Jul 25 2026

Microwave and scatterometer data received since the previous 
advisory indicates that Genevieve has a small inner wind core, with 
conventional imagery showing strong convection near and just south 
of the center.  However, it is unclear whether a tight convective 
spiral seen in the microwave data has continued to develop since 
the overpass.  Satellite intensity estimates are generally near 
45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity.  The initial 34-kt 
wind radii have been decreased a little based on the scatterometer 
data.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the previous 
advisory.  A strong mid-level anticyclone system is centered over 
the western United States, with a ridge axis extending west- 
southwestward over the Pacific Ocean.  This will be the main driver 
of Genevieve's motion over the next 5 days and should keep the storm 
away from the coast of Mexico.  The track guidance remains in good 
agreement that the cyclone will move west-northwestward or 
northwestward during the forecast period with some ups and downs in 
forward speed.  The new forecast track is almost identical to the 
previous forecast and lies near both HCCA and the Google DeepMind 
Ensemble Mean.

The cyclone is forecast to be in an environment favorable for steady 
to rapid strengthening, especially given the presence of the small 
inner core.  While there could be a little northerly shear, the 
rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model are very high, with 
a 75-90 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 
h.  The main issue remains just how strong Genevieve will get.  The 
HCCA model continues to show a peak intensity near 130 kt, while 
most of the other guidance is clustered between peak intensities of 
100-115 kt.  The new intensity forecast will keep the 115 kt peak 
intensity from the previous forecast, which is at the upper edge of 
everything but HCCA.  After reaching peak intensity in about 60 h, 
Genevieve is expected to encounter a drier air mass and eventually 
cooler waters.  This combination should cause slow to steady 
weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 10.0N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 11.0N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.2N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 16.0N 113.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 17.0N 114.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 18.5N 117.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 20.1N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven