000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242037
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
300 PM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
GOES-18 RGB composite imagery and a 1606 UTC METOP-B scatterometer
overpass indicate that the cloud pattern has become better
organized and the surface circulation is better defined.  Deep
convective coverage continues to expand, and a developing curved
band wraps halfway around the center.  The ASCAT data (which showed
35-38 kt believable surface vector winds) and the TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5 support 35-40 kt. However, 
Dvorak rules prevent a reasonable T3.0 (45 kt) classification. Based
on these data, the depression has been upgraded to a 40-kt Tropical
Storm Genevieve.
 
The global model forecast soundings indicate modest 
west-northwesterly shear is undercutting the lighter diffluent flow 
above 250 mb, and appears to be impinging on the northeast quadrant 
of the convective mass.  The SHIPS and the global model fields 
suggest, however, that the shear will diminish during the next 12 
hours.  The latest NOAA AOML ocean analysis indicates that 
Genevieve will be traversing a region of very high tropical cyclone 
ocean heat potential within the next 36 hrs or so.  As a result, 
various rapid intensification techniques and the Google DeepMind 
(GDM) ensemble continue to predict a high probability that 
Genevieve will undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI) by 
mid-period.  Accordingly, the official intensity forecast continues 
to reflect RI between 24 and 48 hours and Genevieve becoming a major 
hurricane early next week, using a blend of the HFIP HCCA corrected 
consensus and the GDM.
 
Genevieve's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward,
or 290/11 kt while being steered by mid-tropospheric high pressure
anchored over northwestern Mexico. The bulk of the models remain in
good agreement with a continued west-northwest heading through the
period, and the NHC forecast follows suit, while lying closely to
the HCCA consensus and the GDM ensemble mean.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z  9.2N 101.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z  9.9N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 11.2N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 12.4N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 13.5N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 14.8N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 16.1N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 19.4N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts