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Remnants of Rick Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260234
TCDEP2

Remnants Of Rick Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Rick has
dissipated over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. The 
surface low, if one exists, appears to be elongated east-to-west 
based on a few weather observations, and there is no organized deep 
convection within 150 nmi of the poorly defined center. Therefore, 
this will be the final NHC advisory on Rick.

Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated 
with Rick's remnants will continue to spread northward over 
south-central and west-central Mexico.  As a result, heavy rainfall 
is expected across portions of those areas through at least Tuesday. 
These rains may contribute to dangerous flash flooding and 
mudslides. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and 
flood potential, please consult products issued by your local 
weather forecast office.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
Rick.  For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flooding 
potential over Mexico, please consult products from your local 
weather forecast office. 


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 20.4N 103.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF RICK
 12H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart