000
WTPZ42 KNHC 272050
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026
 
After some warming of the eyewall cloud top temperatures this 
morning, the infrared satellite presentation of Major Hurricane 
Genevieve has improved over the past couple of hours, with colder 
cloud tops wrapping around the western side of the clear, symmetric, 
and very warm eye. It is possible Genevieve could soon undergo an 
eyewall replacement cycle, though there have been no recent 
microwave images to definitively determine whether one is underway. 
The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 120-130 kt, 
with the 1800 UTC estimate from TAFB at 6.5/127 kt. The initial 
intensity has been set at 130 kt for this advisory. 

The hurricane is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered 
over the central United States, and is moving toward the northwest 
around 310/11 kt. Genevieve is forecast to slow down slightly over 
the next 48 h or so as the ridge weakens and progresses eastward. A 
faster west-northwestward motion is expected late this week into 
this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the 
cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.

Colder cloud tops surrounding the eye indicate some fluctuations in 
intensity could occur with Genevieve this afternoon. However, as the 
hurricane moves toward the northwest and west-northwest this week, a 
steady weakening trend is expected as it encounters cooler waters 
and gradually drier mid-level relative humidity. By early Thursday, 
Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N and encounter waters 
cooler than 26 C, leading to a faster weakening trend for late this 
week into this weekend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Genevieve 
to become post-tropical by 120 h, and this is consistent with 
current model guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 16.6N 113.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 17.5N 115.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 18.2N 116.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 18.7N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 19.3N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 20.1N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 21.0N 124.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 22.6N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 24.6N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin