000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250239
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
900 PM CST Fri Jul 24 2026
 
A burst of deep convection has recently developed over Genevieve's 
center, and a recent GMI microwave pass reveals a well-defined 
low-level structure with an elongated but somewhat broken 
convective band wrapping around the entire circulation. Given 
the improved structure, three separate UW-CIMSS DMINT estimates 
from AMSR2, GMI, and SSMIS microwave passes at 2036, 2245, and 
2322 UTC, respectively, all yielded estimates around 45 kt, and 
that is the current intensity used for this advisory.

A strong mid-level high pressure system over the western United 
States, with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward over the 
Pacific Ocean, will be the main driver of Genevieve's motion over 
the next 5 days and should keep the storm away from the coast of 
Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement that the 
cyclone will move west-northwestward or northwestward, picking up a 
little speed over the next couple of days but then slowing down on 
days 3-5. No significant changes were made to the official track 
forecast, which lies very near the various consensus aids.

Genevieve is expected to be in a nearly ideal environment conducive 
for rapid intensification. These ingredients include very warm ocean 
waters near 30 degrees Celsius, relatively little deep-layer shear, 
a moist and unstable air mass, and increasing upper-level 
divergence. Most of the intensity guidance is supportive of some 
degree of rapid intensification occurring over the next few days, 
but the main forecast challenge is Genevieve's ultimate peak 
intensity. Interestingly, the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean (GDM), which have proven to have some of the best recent skill 
in intensity forecasting, are at the upper and lower bounds of the 
intensity guidance (HCCA peaks at 130 kt while GDM maxes out around 
100 kt). The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward from the 
previous prediction, showing Genevieve reaching category 4 status 
in about 3 days. This solution is also supported by the HAFS-A and 
-B, Florida State Superensemble, and LGEM models. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z  9.5N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 10.4N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 11.6N 106.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.8N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 14.0N 110.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 15.4N 112.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 18.1N 117.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 19.6N 120.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg