000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020831
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 01 2026

Convection associated with Genevieve has been gradually diminishing 
during the past several hours with any deep activity well north of 
the center.  Despite the loss of organization on satellite imagery, 
a ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0531Z showed peak winds of 40-45 
kt, a bit above the latest Dvorak estimates.  Thus, the initial 
wind speed is set to 45 kt.  This is likely just a temporary bump 
in strength with all the models showing steady weakening through 
early next week due to cold water and increasing shear.  Any deep 
convection should be gone within 24 h, and post-tropical status is 
shown at that time.  No significant change to the intensity 
forecast was made with all guidance tightly clustered on the 
previous NHC intensity forecast.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 11 kt.  This 
general motion should continue through the weekend as the cyclone 
is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to the northeast. By 
Monday, Genevieve is forecast to turn northwestward as it moves 
around the ridge.  The latest models are showing a less sharp 
poleward turn, and the new NHC forecast is shifted slightly 
southward from the last one, a bit to the north of the recent 
Google DeepMind tracker and NOAA Corrected Consensus guidance HCCA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 23.9N 137.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 25.4N 141.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  03/1800Z 26.1N 143.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  04/0600Z 26.7N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z 27.3N 145.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 28.0N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake