000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090842
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022026
300 AM CST Tue Jun 09 2026

Organized convection associated with Boris began falling apart about 
12 hours ago, and now there is barely any organized convection 
remaining.  It is quite difficult to estimate where the low-level 
center is, and there have been no recent microwave images, 
scatterometer data, or nearby surface observations.  Based on the 
GOES proxy vis imagery, it is estimated that the center of Boris 
has moved inland along the border of Oaxaca and Guerrero.  The 
initial intensity has been brought down to 35 kt which could be 
generous, and is in good agreement with a blend of the latest 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The current motion is estimated to be north-northwest at 5 kt. A 
turn to the northwest is expected shortly as a mid-level ridge 
builds over the western Gulf of America, and little change has been 
made to the NHC track forecast.  Model guidance is in good agreement 
showing rapid weakening and dissipation occurring over land very 
soon.  The NHC forecast indicates weakening to a remnant low by 
midday today with dissipation by hour 24, although it is possible 
that Boris could dissipate sooner.

The threat of heavy rainfall continues to be the primary hazard of 
concern with this slow-moving system, which will likely result in 
flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain through this 
morning.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Boris across 
portions of southern Mexico will subside by later today. Some risk 
of additional flooding and mudslides continues this morning, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring along the coast 
within the Tropical Storm Warning area and will continue through 
early this morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.4N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.1N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen