000
WTPZ42 KNHC 282033
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026

Vance's convection continues to be displaced northeast of the 
center, with visible satellite imagery still showing an exposed 
low-level circulation. An ASCAT pass over Vance from around 1640 UTC 
showed the highest winds displaced well away from the center as 
well, with a peak value of 29 kt, although this pass missed the 
deepest convection to the northeast. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB gave Vance a final T-number of 2.0, 
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 27 to 34 kt. 
Based on primarily scatterometry data and satellite imagery, the 
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and Vance is downgraded to a 
tropical depression. 

The initial motion was estimated to be 010/8 kt. Vance is being 
steered by a longwave trough centered over the east-central 
Pacific. Track guidance generally agrees on keeping the storm 
motion fixed at north-northeast over the next 48 hours, as the 
trough will be slow to shift eastward. The latest NHC track 
forecast has changed little from the previous advisory, and 
generally follows a blend of the last forecast and the latest HCCA 
guidance. 

Vance remains in a hostile environment characterized by strong 
vertical wind shear, and global models generally depict the system 
becoming post-tropical within the next 24 hours. The system may 
dissipate shortly thereafter, perhaps before even reaching the coast 
of Sinaloa. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF 
suggest that Vance may undergo one more round of diurnal convection 
overnight tonight. However, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
generally holds the system's intensity steady, given how hostile the 
environment is despite the potential convective re-development. 
Regardless of Vance's dissipation time, heavy rain can still be 
expected along and ahead of the system's north-northeastward track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact
portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall
may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern
Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of
Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 20.1N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 21.2N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.6N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0600Z 24.1N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin