000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021438
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 AM HST Sun Aug 02 2026
 
Genevieve is feeling the effects of west-southwesterly shear and dry 
mid-level air this morning. Convection is displaced to the north of 
the center and is quickly diminishing, and the center is now 
completely exposed. A recent AMSR-2 pass indicated that the vortex 
was tilted with height, with the low-level circulation displaced 
from the mid-level center. Despite the tilt, the low-level 
circulation remains intact, although it was notably weaker on the 
southern side. Recent objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
range from 31-48 kt, while the TAFB estimate was 2.5/35 kt. Given 
these estimates and the degraded satellite appearance, the initial 
intensity has been set at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest around 12 kt, 
along the southwest periphery of a ridge centered over the 
southwestern United States. This motion is forecast to continue over 
the next 36 h or so, before Genevieve turns toward the northwest and 
slows. Environmental conditions will become increasingly hostile, 
likely prohibiting any additional strengthening. In fact, organized 
deep convection is expected to diminish later today, and the latest 
NHC forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by tonight. 
Intensity guidance remains tightly clustered, and the forecast lies 
within the middle of the guidance envelope. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 24.5N 138.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 25.2N 140.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 26.0N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  04/0000Z 26.7N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 27.3N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 28.0N 145.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 28.6N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Hagen