000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220258
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to become better 
organized, with an expanding area of deep convection over the 
circulation and cloud-top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees 
C. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 
T2.5/35 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 32 to 
43 kt. Based on these estimates and the improving satellite 
presentation, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated at 290/4 kt. The storm will begin to 
slow down as it turns northwest and then north-northwest, steered 
along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge 
located over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar 
to the previous advisory, with a slight eastward adjustment at days 
4 and 5 toward the latest GDMI, HCCA, and TVCN consensus aids. 
However, considerable cross-track spread remains among the guidance 
solutions at longer forecast ranges, likely related to differences 
in how the models depict the evolving synoptic pattern near the 
western United States. Consequently, confidence in the extended 
portion of the track forecast remains lower than normal.
 
Environmental conditions appear very favorable for significant 
strengthening during the next couple of days, with warm sea surface 
temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of deep-layer 
moisture.  SHIPS RII, DTOPS, and SDCON guidance continue to be 
supportive, suggesting over a 50 percent probability of extreme RI 
over the next 3 days, indicating a high-confidence scenario for a 
major hurricane to develop. Given the favorable environment and 
elevated rapid intensification probabilities, the updated NHC 
intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid intensification during 
the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, Vance will begin to experience 
increased vertical wind shear while moving into slightly drier 
mid-level air, suggesting a weakening trend thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z  9.6N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z  9.8N 101.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 10.4N 102.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 10.9N 102.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 11.5N 103.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 12.3N 103.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 16.7N 105.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs