000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080855
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022026
300 AM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
 
The diurnal convective maximum has led to a significant uptick in
deep convection near the tropical cyclone.  Although much of this 
activity is oriented linearly along the trough axis of the 
elongated circulation, there does appear to be some convective 
banding near the center of circulation.  Available subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates unanimously support an 
initial intensity of at least 35 kt, and the depression is 
therefore being upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris.
 
Boris appears to have turned northeastward, inching closer to the 
southern coast of Mexico, with an initial motion of 040/4 kt.  
Mid-level ridging is expected to strengthen over northern Mexico 
during the next 24 hours, which should cause Boris to turn northward 
later today and then northwestward by tonight.  On this trajectory, 
the center of the storm is expected to reach the coast of Guerrero, 
Mexico, later this afternoon or evening.  The new NHC track forecast 
is nearly on top of the previous prediction and very close to the 
various consensus aids.
 
Some slight strengthening is possible today, but the system's 
broad, elongated nature and fairly strong east-southeasterly shear 
are likely to prevent significant intensification.  Once the center 
of the cyclone reaches land, the high terrain of Mexico is expected 
to obliterate the low-level circulation, and dissipation is now
forecast to occur by 36 hours.  The primary hazard of concern will
continue to be the threat for very heavy rainfall, which could lead
to flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Boris will impact 
portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of
southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.9N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 16.3N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 17.4N 100.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg