828 
WTPZ42 KNHC 080236
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022026
900 PM CST Sun Jun 07 2026
 
Tropical Depression Two-E continues to be a large sprawling system 
with a broad circulation center and the strongest winds oriented in 
bands along the southern flank of the circulation. This was 
suggested by an earlier afternoon OSCAT pass that indicated a 
well-defined circulation, but a broad radius of maximum winds. 
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 
28-41 kt, and I'd like to see a bit more consolidation of 
convective activity before upgrading the depression, so the initial 
intensity will remain 30 kt on this advisory. 

It is difficult this evening to pinpoint the exact center of the 
broad circulation, but based on earlier OSCAT data and last-light 
visible imagery, the position was nudged a little further south, 
with an estimated motion of 075/2 kt as it is caught within the 
larger-scale monsoonal flow. Over the next 24 h, the system is 
expected to slowly pivot from its current east-northeastward motion 
to the north and then north-northwest as the system feels more 
influence of a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. This 
motion should bring the center of TD 2-E near the coast of Mexico 
by late Monday afternoon. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted 
a little eastward early on, mostly due to the short-term position 
adjustment, but falls close to the prior NHC track after landfall, 
in good agreement with the track consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. 
 
The depression only has a short window to intensify further while it 
remains over warm sea-surface temperatures and plenty of deep-layer 
moisture. The large size of the system, combined with some moderate 
easterly shear caused by the larger monsoonal low-level flow, will 
likely temper a faster rate of intensification before landfall. 
Nonetheless, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become 
a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico, followed by quick 
weakening as the system moves over the high rugged terrain of 
Mexico. Heavy rainfall remains the primary hazard expected with the 
system, which is likely to produce flooding and mudslides as it 
moves inland into Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-E will 
impact portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of
southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 15.3N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.0N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.8N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 17.8N 100.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin