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Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion


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717 
WTPZ42 KNHC 022038
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072019
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 02 2019

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that Flossie
has become less organized during the past several hours, with the
convection decreasing and the mid-level center apparently displaced
to the east of the low-level center.  Based on the decay of the
cloud pattern and just-received ASCAT data, the initial intensity
is reduced to 55 kt.

The initial motion is 285/15.  As before, there has been little
change to either the track forecast philosophy or the track
forecast.  A subtropical ridge to the north should keep Flossie
moving generally west-northwestward for another 2 or 3 days.  After
that, most of the guidance forecasts a northwestward turn followed
by a northward turn due to an upper-level trough located northwest
of the Hawaiian Islands.  The new official track forecast is close
to the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus
models.

The forecast track takes Flossie over sea surface temperatures near
26C and through persistent shear, with the shear forecast to
increase between 48-120 h as Flossie approaches the aforementioned
upper-level trough.  The intensity guidance responds to this
environment by forecasting gradual weakening, and the new NHC
forecast, which is again similar to the previous forecast, follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Flossie.  Future information on this system can be found in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header
WTPA22 PHFO.  For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands,
users should continue to consult products from the National Weather
Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 17.5N 139.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 141.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.7N 144.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.3N 146.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.7N 148.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 25.5N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 29.0N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven