086 
WTPZ42 KNHC 292042
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Genevieve has slowly deteriorated 
today, as cold cloud top temperatures less than -30 C partially 
obscure the center. A 29/1352Z RCM-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar scan 
revealed that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred earlier this 
morning and was nearly complete, and subsequently, the radius of 
maximum winds had expanded. Cloud top temperatures in the newly 
formed eyewall are warming, despite the prevalence of deep 
convection. The 1800Z intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, 
and subjective estimates range from 74-90 kt. Based on these data 
and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 85 
kt for this advisory.
 
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, along 
the southwestern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge over the 
southern High Plains of the United States. Genevieve is expected to 
continue on a west-northwestward heading through this weekend with 
an increase in forward speed as the ridge expands westward. Late 
this weekend into early next week, Genevieve will turn toward the 
northwest then north, ahead of a strong upper-level low progressing 
eastward over the eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast track is 
slightly left of the previous track, and falls in the middle of the 
consensus track guidance, nearest to the corrected (HCCA) consensus 
aid.
 
Genevieve will continue to feel the impacts of moderate 
northwesterly shear over the next 12 h or so, as well as gradually 
cooling waters and unfavorable upper-level dynamics. On Thursday, 
the forecast calls for the hurricane to move into an environment 
with increasingly dry mid-level conditions and waters cooler than 
26C, leading to further weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
has been adjusted further downward during the next 48 h. Genevieve 
is expected to fall below hurricane strength by Thursday night or 
early Friday, and may struggle to produce organized convection by 
the second half of this weekend, as indicated by the GFS and ECMWF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 19.2N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 19.7N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 20.4N 124.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 21.2N 126.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 22.0N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 22.7N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 23.5N 134.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 25.4N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  03/1800Z 27.9N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven