000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300243
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
500 PM HST Wed Jul 29 2026

Genevieve appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time 
being.  Strong convection has been firing near the estimated center 
position, although there is no eye evident on geostationary 
imagery.  The cloud pattern is quite symmetric and upper-level 
outflow remains well defined over the hurricane.  The current 
intensity estimate is held at 85 kt for this advisory, which is a 
blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates. 

Genevieve continues to move toward the west-northwest with an 
initial motion estimate of about 290/8 kt.  This general direction 
of motion is likely to continue over the next several days while the 
cyclone is steered by the flow on the southwestern periphery of a 
strong mid-level high pressure area extending from the southwestern 
United States into the eastern North Pacific.  Some increase in 
Genevieve's forward speed is expected during the next 1-3 days as 
the mid-level ridge builds westward.  Late in the forecast period, a 
trough in the vicinity of 145W should induce a turn to the right.  
The official track forecast is close to the simple dynamical model 
consensus, TVCN, and is also very similar to the previous NHC 
prediction. 

During the forecast period, sea surface temperatures are expected 
to gradually cool beneath the cyclone while it continues 
west-northwestward.  Vertical wind shear is likely to increase 
somewhat and Genevieve will be moving through an increasingly dry 
air mass.  Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to weaken and drop 
below hurricane strength in a day or so.  By the weekend, deep 
convection associated with the system will probably diminish and 
result in Genevieve degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone.  
The NHC intensity forecast follows the model consensus.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 19.6N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 20.1N 122.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 20.8N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 21.6N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.3N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 23.9N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  04/0000Z 28.0N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch