Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Forecast Discussion
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000 WTPZ42 KNHC 022034 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 02 2026 Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have significantly impacted Genevieve today. Organized deep convection has slowly dissipated over the past 12 h or so, leaving only a small area of shallow convection north of the now completely exposed low-level center. Genevieve no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory issued on this system. The most recent Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt, and objective estimates range from 29-38 kt. The intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this final advisory. The gale-force low is moving quickly toward the west-northwest around 11 kt, and this general motion will continue early this week as the system is steered along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered to its north. An eventual turn toward the northwest accompanied by a decreased in forward speed is expected by midweek. Gradual weakening of the post-tropical low is forecast to continue, with the system expected to dissipate by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 24.8N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0600Z 25.4N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1800Z 26.2N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 26.8N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 27.4N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 28.2N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 28.7N 146.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi