000
WTPZ42 KNHC 310835
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 30 2026
 
Genevieve has continued to weaken as persistent dry-air entrainment 
steadily erodes its convective structure. Although the low-level 
circulation remains well-defined, the overall convective coverage 
has diminished significantly over the past several hours, with the 
deepest convection now limited to the western semicircle. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and objective 
UW-CIMSS intensity estimates combined with the degraded satellite 
presentation support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. 

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, and that 
general motion is expected to persist through the weekend as a 
strong low- to mid-level ridge remains positioned north of the 
cyclone. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the northwest then the 
north-northwest is forecast in response to a weakness forming in the 
subtropical ridge due to an upper low over the northeast Pacific. 
The latest guidance remains in good agreement, and the updated NHC 
track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable during 
the next several days due to a combination of very dry mid-level 
air, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures along its track, 
and increasing southwesterly shear. These conditions will result in 
a steady weakening trend, with the cyclone forecast to degenerate 
into a post-tropical remnant low by the end of the weekend. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast reflects this weakening trend and is 
similar to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 21.7N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 22.2N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 23.9N 134.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 24.7N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 25.5N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 26.6N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z 29.2N 145.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z 32.6N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans