885 
WTPZ42 KNHC 270248
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
800 PM MST Sun Jul 26 2026
 
Genevieve continues to intensify this afternoon and evening. 
Satellite imagery reveals a pronounced, circular, warming eye with a 
deep band of convection wrapping around the inner core. GLM 
satellite data shows that lightning has been occurring in the 
eastern and northern eyewalls for the last several hours. Latest 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 126–142 kt. 
The TAFB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is T6.5/127 
kt. Based on these values and latest satellite trends, the current 
intensity is increased to 135 kt, and Genevieve is a powerful 
Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
 
Environmental conditions remain conducive for intensification, with 
low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the 
track. Based on these conditions and the various guidance some 
additional strengthening is possible, and the peak intensity 
forecast has been raised to 140 kt. Thereafter, hard-to-predict 
eyewall replacement cycles could cause intensity fluctuations. Given 
current trends and favorable conditions, the short-term intensity 
forecast lies above the model guidance. In about 2-3 days, Genevieve 
is forecast to cross cooler SSTs, encounter drier mid-level air, and 
enter a more stable environment. Thus, gradual to steady weakening 
is expected, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near consensus aids 
in the extended period.
 
Genevieve is moving west-northwestward at 300/12 kt. The storm is 
moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over 
northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving 
west-northwestward to northwestward as it rounds the southwestern 
edge of the aforementioned ridge through the forecast period, with a 
slight decrease in forward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA 
corrected consensus and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 14.7N 111.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 15.7N 112.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 16.9N 114.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 17.6N 115.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 18.1N 117.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 18.8N 118.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 19.6N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  31/0000Z 21.2N 125.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 22.7N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly