453 
WTPZ42 KNHC 012032
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026

The organization of Genevieve hasn’t changed much during the past 6 
h.  GOES-18 daytime visible imagery indicates that the low-level 
center is exposed to the west of the main convective area.  The 
latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is 
2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range 
from about 35-40 kt.  The initial intensity will remain 40 kt for 
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is 
unchanged from 6 h ago.  This general motion will continue through 
the end of the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of 
the cyclone.  By Monday, a gradual turn to the northwest and 
north-northwest is expected as the ridge weakens north of the 
cyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that will be located to the 
north-northwest of Genevieve.  Very little change was made to the 
previous NHC track forecast, which lies close to the latest Google 
DeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).  The 
track guidance remains tightly clustered, so there is high 
confidence in the track forecast.

Genevieve is starting to enter cooler sea-surface temperatures 
(SSTs) now, with SSTs between 24-25C.  The cyclone will reach SSTs 
lower than 24C in about 12h.  Genevieve is currently moving within 
an environment of weak vertical wind shear dry, stable air.  
Southwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate 
levels (15-20 kt) by 24 h while the environment remains dry and 
stable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening, 
and Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become post 
tropical by 36 h.  Thereafter, the remnant low should gradually spin 
down with dissipation occurring by 96 h, as depicted by the global 
models.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen