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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2026
 
Fausto continues to weaken due to 25 kt or more of southwesterly 
vertical shear. The cyclone is now comprised mainly of a large 
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with what remains of the 
convection well to the northeast of the center. Satellite intensity 
estimates are decreasing, and the initial intensity is reduced to a 
possibly generous 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is schedule to investigate Fausto near 29/00Z. 

The center of Fausto seems to have re-formed a bit to the north of 
the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 
285/10. As Fausto continues weakening, the low-level ridge to the 
north should steer the cyclone or its remnants generally west- 
northwestward for the next several days as shown by the track 
guidance. The new track forecast is nudged a little north of the 
previous track due mainly to the more northerly initial position, 
but otherwise has no major changes. On the forecast track, Fausto 
should pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands tonight through 
late Wednesday.
 
A hostile environment of increasing shear and decreasing moisture 
should keep Fausto weakening through the forecast period, with all 
of the intensity guidance agreeing on this. The cyclone is now 
expected to weaken to a depression by 36 h and then degenerate to a 
remnant low by 48 h. After 60 h, the circulation should weaken to a 
trough. If convection does not re-develop near the center during 
the normal diurnal maximum late tonight, it is possible that the 
cyclone could dissipate earlier than forecast.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through today
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 22.5N 152.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 22.9N 153.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 23.4N 156.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 23.9N 158.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 24.5N 161.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0600Z 25.3N 163.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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