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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026

Most of the deep convection associated with Fausto has been sheared 
well to the northeast of the low-level center.  Reports from an Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum 
sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt.  The aircraft 
observations and earlier ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometer data 
show that tropical-storm-force winds are now confined to the 
northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  The center of the 
cyclone will likely pass very near NOAA data buoy 51000 within the 
next few hours, and should provide additional information on the 
central pressure which is estimated to have risen to 1006 mb.

Center fixes from aircraft and satellite indicate that Fausto 
continues on a mainly west-northward track with an initial motion 
estimate of 285/10 kt.  The steering winds associated with a weak 
low-level ridge should result in a continued general 
west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days.  The official 
track forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and 
similar to the previous NHC prediction.

Although Fausto is expected to remain over marginally warm ocean 
waters, the atmospheric environment is expected to be highly 
unfavorable, and become even less conducive for regeneration during 
the period.  Strong upper-level westerlies should result in a 
further increase in vertical wind shear, and the system will be 
moving through an extremely dry low- to mid-level air mass.  
Therefore, continued weakening is likely, and Fausto is expected to 
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or 
so.


Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of 
the Hawaiian Islands tonight through Wednesday night. Although the 
current forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest 
rainfall will remain north of the islands, interests across the 
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
 
2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward across 
the Hawaiian Islands along exposed east-facing shores through 
tonight as Fausto begins to pass north of the islands.  Large surf 
and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed 
shores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 23.0N 153.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 23.4N 155.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 23.9N 157.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 24.4N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 25.2N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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