000
WTPZ41 KNHC 071446
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Amanda Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012026
500 AM HST Sun Jun 07 2026
 
Although Amanda's circulation once again became exposed to the 
east of the sheared cloud pattern overnight, deep convection has 
redeveloped over the surface center.  Recent METOP-A/B scatterometer
overpasses indicated just a few 30 kt winds in the northwest 
quadrant, and the surface circulation has become a little less 
defined.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory 
and agrees with TAFB's Dvorak satellite intensity estimate.
 
Amanda is moving southwestward at 4 kt in the low-level flow 
through an increasingly dry/stable and sheared surrounding 
environment.  A turn toward the west-southwest is expected later 
today and Amanda should continue in this general motion through the 
period.  Although oceanic surface temperatures along Amanda's path 
are warm (27-28C), further weakening is expected due to the 
inhibiting environmental conditions.  The Global model Simulated/IR 
forecasts from both the GFS and ECMWF indicate that Amanda will lose 
organized convection soon, and the NHC forecast follows suit with 
the cyclone degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 11.5N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 11.2N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 10.9N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 10.6N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 10.2N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0000Z  9.9N 140.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z  9.7N 141.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts