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Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Forecast Discussion


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has not produced a significant amount of deep convection 
for the past 12 hours or so.  Therefore the system no longer 
qualifies as a tropical cyclone and this will be the last advisory. 
The remnant low of Estelle should continue to gradually spin down 
and degenerate into a trough by this weekend.  This is consistent 
with the forecasts from global models. 

Visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is a 
little farther south of the previous track forecast.  The updated 
prediction reflects this slight southward shift.  The post-tropical 
cyclone should move westward or a little north of westward in the 
low-level winds for the next couple of days. 

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 22.3N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 22.6N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1800Z 22.9N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0600Z 23.1N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 23.3N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

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