343 
WTPZ41 KNHC 310839
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012025
200 AM MST Sat May 31 2025
 
A collapsing area of fragmented convection is all that remains of 
Alvin's cloud pattern this morning.  The initial intensity has been 
lowered to 35 kt, between the objective intensity guidance of 32-40 
kt and closest to the TAFB T-2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification. Global 
models predict that the strong shear, dry air, and cool sea surface 
temperatures should prevent any new organized deep convection from 
forming.  Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low later today and 
dissipate on Sunday.  

Alvin is moving northward at 9 kt in the low-level flow.  This 
general motion is expected to continue through the weekend and only 
minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 20.0N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/0600Z 22.3N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci