000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300832
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that Karina is strengthening and has 
become a hurricane. Curved bands now wrap completely around the 
center, and the dry slots noted earlier have filled in. There is a 
wide range in the latest satellite intensity estimates, from about 
50 to 80 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, based on 
a blend of the estimates and continued improved cloud pattern. A 
partial ASCAT pass indicates that the wind field has contracted, and 
the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been updated based on 
that data.
 
Now that Karina has a closed and symmetric inner core, significant 
strengthening seems likely given that the hurricane is forecast to 
remain in conducive environmental conditions for the next couple of 
days. The strengthening process is expected to stall on Monday, 
followed by a gradual weakening trend as Karina moves over 
progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass during the 
middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC intensity forecast 
is higher than the previous one, but still below the GDMI and HCCA 
aids.
 
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The high
pressure system to the north of Karina is expected to weaken due to
an amplifying trough over the western U.S. However, there should be
enough ridging to keep Karina on a westward to west-northwestward
course, albeit at a slower pace, throughout the week. There is a
fair amount of spread in the model guidance from days 3 to 5, but in
general, the latest models have shifted southward this cycle. Based
on this guidance, the NHC track forecast has been nudged southward,
but still lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 17.3N 121.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.6N 122.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 17.8N 124.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 17.9N 125.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 18.3N 127.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 18.9N 129.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 19.4N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 20.3N 133.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 21.2N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi