000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210839
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026
 
Odalys continues to be an asymmetric tropical cyclone this morning,
with deep convection primarily confined to the southern and eastern
semicircles. The low-level center was exposed for much of the
evening. However, over the past couple of hours, a new burst of deep
convection has developed near the center. A Metop-B scatterometer
pass at 0455 UTC revealed peak winds of only 32 kt. Meanwhile, the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 39 to 45 kt. Blending the scatterometer data with the higher
satellite estimates and the subsequent convective burst near the
center, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt,
and this general motion should continue through tonight. A mid- to
upper-level trough is expected to move into the eastern Pacific
toward the southwest U.S. coast and the Baja California peninsula.
This will cause a sharp eastward turn, steering the system
east-northeastward to northeastward through the middle of the week
between the flow of the trough and a mid-level ridge situated
between Odalys and Tropical Storm Polo. The latest NHC track
forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous forecast,
and lies near the HCCA and GDMI track aids.

Odalys will continue to deal with vertical wind shear over the next 
day or so. Afterward, the guidance suggests the shear should relax 
slightly while the cyclone remains over warm sea surface 
temperatures and within a moist environment. This should allow for 
some gradual strengthening during the next few days. By the middle 
to latter portion of the forecast period, the latest SHIPS guidance 
shows the system moving into a drier mid-level environment, with 
vertical wind shear expected to increase again. In response to 
these less favorable conditions, several intensity models no longer 
show Odalys reaching hurricane strength. Although Odalys is still 
forecast to become a hurricane, the updated NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope, closely following 
the HCCA consensus aid, and is slightly lower than the previous 
forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 13.5N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 14.4N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 15.2N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 15.4N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 15.5N 129.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 15.9N 126.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 17.2N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly