000
WTPZ41 KNHC 250856
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Odalys's eye structure has become much better defined on satellite 
imagery since the last advisory. The latest objective Dvorak 
intensity analyses from UW-CIMSS estimates Odalys's strength to 
be around 100 kt, while TAFB's subjective analysis rated the storm 
at 5.5/102 kt. Given Odalys's improved satellite presentation and 
these estimates, the initial intensity was raised to 100 kt. 

The initial motion has shifted toward the northeast, or at 040/5 kt. 
Odalys's trajectory is becoming increasingly influenced by a mid- to 
upper-level trough to its north-northwest, which, combined with its 
location on the eastern flank of the east Pacific subtropical high, 
should drive an almost due north motion over the next couple of 
days. Forecast models continue to exhibit large discrepancies in 
track after 48 h as Odalys's forward motion decreases and Hurricane 
Polo's wind field becomes an increasing influence. The overall trend 
across models, however, is to turn Odalys to the north sooner, so 
the latest NHC track forecast reflects this, following a blend of 
HCCA and GDMI and thus shifting the track to the left from the 
previous forecast.

Given Odalys's improved presentation on satellite imagery, the 
intensity forecast was left relatively steady through the first 24 
h. However, the storm is expected to encounter a hostile 
environment shortly thereafter, characterized by increasing 
vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler SSTs. As a 
result, a steady weakening trend is expected heading into the 
weekend, with Odalys forecast to become post tropical by the end of 
the weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in 
line with the model consensus. 

Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance
into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for
more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 17.6N 124.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen