000
WTPZ41 KNHC 230242
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Odalys appears to have been impacted by mid-level dry air 
entrainment earlier tonight, which disrupted the deep convection 
that had been occurring near and to the west of the partially 
exposed center. In addition, a recent SSMIS pass indicated moderate 
northerly wind shear had displaced the mid-level center to the south 
of the low-level circulation and was displacing the remaining 
convection to the south and east of the center. However, new 
convection is developing near the core of Odalys, with cloud top 
temperatures rapidly cooling to below -80 C. The latest TAFB 
intensity estimate was 3.5/55 kt, while objective intensity 
estimates range from 53-67 kt. The intensity is held at 60 kt for 
this advisory. 

The strong tropical storm is moving toward the east-northeast around 
8 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple 
of days as the system is guided by a strong long-wave trough over 
the far eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged 
slightly to the left through the first 24 h. A turn toward the 
northeast, followed by a northward motion, is forecast by late this 
week as an upper-level low strengthens and approaches Odalys from 
the northwest. Beyond 72 h, the track forecast becomes more 
uncertain, as a potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could 
influence Odalys' motion while the major hurricane moves parallel to 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC forecast has been 
adjusted to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 h, toward 
the HCCA solution. 

Weakening wind shear and sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures 
should support gradual strengthening over the next 24 h or so, and 
Odalys is expected to become a hurricane later tonight. By late this 
week, however, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and increasingly 
unfavorable upper-level outflow associated with Hurricane Polo are 
expected to induce gradual weakening through this weekend. The 
current NHC intensity forecast lies near the top of the model 
guidance envelope and remains close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind 
solutions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 15.5N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams