000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240252
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2026
 
Since the previous advisory, Hurricane Fausto has strengthened a bit 
more. The eye is less ragged on visible and infrared satellite 
imagery, and moderately deep convection continues to surround the 
center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates all 
support an initial intensity of 80 kt.

The deep-layer ridge north of Fausto continues to steer the 
hurricane westward at 280/13 kt. This general motion will continue 
through tonight, and then Fausto will begin a more 
west-northwestward heading, with the system reaching just north of 
the Hawaiian Islands at Day 5. There has been little change to the 
track forecast this cycle, and the updated forecast closely follows 
the HCCA model consensus aid and Google DeepMind. 
 
The current environment around Fausto remains marginal, with SSTs of 
26.5-27C, and some mid-level wind shear and dry air attempting and 
failing to intrude the northwestern part of the core. Given the 
present structure of the hurricane, the intensity is likely to 
remain steady through tonight. Thereafter, Fausto will move through 
a less favorable environment characterized by cooler SSTs 
(25.5-26C), an increasingly drier air mass, and potentially 
increasing westerly wind shear. This is reflected in the new 
intensity forecast, which shows steady weakening through the end of 
the forecast period. There are some solutions within the global and 
hurricane regional model guidance that suggest a faster pace of 
weakening than forecast, including the possible degeneration of 
Fausto into a remnant low while approaching the Hawaiian Islands. To 
maintain continuity, the NHC forecast continues to show Fausto as a 
tropical cyclone through the entire 5-day forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the 
early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of some impacts 
from wind and rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too soon to 
determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and 
interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this 
storm.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 18.3N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 18.5N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 19.6N 137.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 19.8N 140.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 20.1N 142.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 21.3N 154.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Berg