260 
WTPZ41 KNHC 231443
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2026

Dry air entrainment has once again impacted Fausto this morning. 
While the hurricane briefly closed off an eyewall a few hours ago, 
the latest satellite images show that inner core convection has 
eroded on the western side of the circulation. The initial intensity 
is held at 70 kt, which falls between the latest D-MINT and D-PRINT 
estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T4.5/77 kt Dvorak classification from 
TAFB. 

The hurricane is moving westward (280 degrees) at 11 kt, and this 
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days as 
a ridge strengthens to the north of Fausto. There is increased 
spread in the track models beginning around day 3, with the Google 
Deep Mind notably faster and farther south than the GFS and the 
hurricane regional models. The NHC track forecast remains on the 
southern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP 
corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. 
While the longer-range forecast brings the center of Fausto 
generally toward the Hawaiian Islands, it is too early to speculate 
on potential impacts to the islands at this point.

Fausto continues to periodically struggle with intrusions of 
drier mid-level air within its circulation. Although the deep-layer 
shear is fairly low, model soundings suggest that stronger 
west-northwesterly mid-level shear during the next couple of days 
may cause continued bouts of dry air entrainment. Then, the SHIPS 
guidance shows mid-level humidity values falling below 50 percent by 
this weekend. So although Fausto will be over marginal SSTs 
throughout the period, a gradual weakening trend is predicted while 
the system moves into the Central Pacific. This forecast keeps 
Fausto a tropical cyclone through day 5, but model simulated 
satellite imagery suggests the system could struggle to maintain 
organized convection by early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 17.9N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 18.1N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 18.8N 132.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 19.4N 140.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.1N 145.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N 151.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart