000
WTPZ41 KNHC 222043
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Deep convection was on a positive trend until recently, when the 
cloud tops started to warm based on the data from infrared satellite 
imagery, likely due to entering the diurnal convective minimum. The 
latest subjective TAFB Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which is the same 
as the last several cycles. The objective satellite intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 53-70 kt. Therefore, the 
initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone is currently moving east-northeastward, or 60/3 kt. This 
general motion is expected to persist as a trough that is moving 
over the eastern Pacific toward the western coast of the United 
States should deepen further. After this, the trough will become the 
main steering flow for Odalys resulting in an east-northeastward or 
northeastward motion for the next few days. After 72 h, the 
uncertainty in the track increases as potential interaction with 
Hurricane Polo could cause Odalys to slow down later in the forecast 
period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
track with only a few minor adjustments and continues to be in good 
agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.  

The cyclone is forecasted to be in an environment with weaker wind 
shear, plenty of mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface 
temperatures, and this is expected to lead to additional 
intensification over the next few days. Thus, Odalys is forecast to 
become a hurricane tonight. After 48 h, Odalys will encounter a 
drier mid-level air mass and increased upper-level outflow from 
Hurricane Polo. The current NHC intensity guidance remains on the 
upper end of the model guidance, but close to the HCCA and GDMI 
forecast aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 15.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 16.5N 125.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.3N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 21.3N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen