065 
WTPZ41 KNHC 221444
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
 
Fausto appears to be contending with intrusions of dry air based on 
its deteriorated satellite structure this morning. Recent AMSR-2 and 
GMI passive microwave images show the mid-level eyewall of the 
hurricane is no longer closed, and dry slots are evident in 
geostationary satellite images. As a result of these changes, the 
satellite intensity estimates have decreased this morning. The 
initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is in good agreement with 
the latest UW-CIMSS D-PRINT, D-MINT, and SATCON estimates.
 
Fausto continues moving west-northwestward (285/6 kt) while being 
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This feature is 
forecast to strengthen over the next few days, which should keep 
Fausto on a west-northwestward to westward heading with some 
increase in forward speed later this week and over the weekend. The 
track models are in good agreement through 72 h, with increased 
cross-track spread noted at days 4-5. The Google Deep Mind and HCCA 
remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS 
and regional hurricane models are still slower and farther north. 
Little change was made to the official NHC track forecast, which 
continues to follow HCCA on the southern side of the guidance suite.
 
Some restrengthening is possible during the next day or two while 
Fausto moves over warm waters in a light to moderate shear 
environment. However, continued intrusions of dry air may limit the 
potential for further intensification, and the NHC forecast only 
shows modest strengthening during the next 24-36 h. As Fausto moves 
westward, it is predicted to encounter a drier and more stable air 
mass over the weekend while tracking near the 26 deg C isotherm. 
Thus, slow weakening is shown during the latter half of this 
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the 
higher side of the intensity guidance. Note that any large northward 
track deviations would likely cause Fausto to weaken even faster 
than shown in this forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 16.9N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 18.1N 127.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 18.4N 130.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 18.8N 135.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.0N 146.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart