000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212046
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026
 
Although the storm still has not become appreciably better organized 
on either geostationary or microwave imagery, a recent ASCAT-C 
overpass showed at least one believable wind vector of near 43 kt. 
This, along with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB, supports increasing 
the intensity slightly to 45 kt.  Odalys continues to produce quite 
a bit of deep convection, but the highest cloud tops are not as cold 
as they were earlier today, likely a diurnal fluctuation.

The forward speed has slowed somewhat and the motion estimate is 
around 310/7 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is basically 
unchanged from the previous couple of advisories.  A mid- to 
upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Baja California 
peninsula during the next day or so.  This should result in a sharp 
eastward turn of Odalys tomorrow.  The tropical cyclone should then 
be steered east-northeastward to northeastward by the flow between 
the trough and a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and 
Hurricane Polo.  The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the 
previous one and lies near the HCCA and GDMI track guidance. Some 
interaction between Odalys and Polo is possible near the end or 
after the forecast period.

According to the most recent Decay-SHIPS input, the vertical wind 
shear is likely to remain in the light to moderate range for the 
next several days.  This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean, 
should allow Odalys to strengthen into a hurricane in 48 hours or 
so.  Somewhat drier air could result in some weakening late in the 
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good 
agreement with the HCCA corrected model consensus. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 14.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch