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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Forecast Discussion

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WTPZ41 KNHC 102036

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112023
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so. 
The overall cloud pattern  continues to become disheveled, as the 
system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been 
producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the 
definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated 
into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered 
to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass 
which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates.

Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as
it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about
72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast,
which lies near the consensus intensity aids.

Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A 
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in 
forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus.

This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane 
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


INIT  10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Kelly