000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030241
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025
 
Flossie is rapidly weakening, with deep convection now confined to 
the western and southwestern quadrants of the circulation and the 
low-level center almost fully exposed. This trend is supported by 
recent Dvorak classifications, with current intensity estimates from 
TAFB at 4.5/77 kt and SAB at 4.0/65 kt. Objective satellite 
intensity estimates range between 56 and 72 kt. A blend of these 
data supports lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt.
 
The initial motion is 305/7 kt. Flossie is moving along the 
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, with a weakness in 
the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Baja 
California region. A continued northwestward motion is expected 
during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward 
the west-northwest as the system decouples vertically. The latest 
forecast track remains very close to the previous advisory and is 
well-supported by the consensus aids.

Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Flossie moves over 
progressively cooler waters and into a more stable and drier 
environment. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by late 
Thursday, or within the next 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant 
low shortly thereafter. The system is expected to dissipate by late 
Saturday, around 72 hours from now. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake