000
WTPZ41 KNHC 201435
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026
 
Deep convection has been increasing in strength and coverage over
the past several hours, and Fausto continues to gradually gain
strength.  The low-level center, although difficult to locate, is
still near the northern edge of the thunderstorm activity due to
north-northeasterly vertical wind shear.  The initial intensity has
been nudged up to 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest
satellite estimates.
 
The shear is expected to decrease, and since Fausto is forecast to
remain over warm waters and in a moist environment, continued
strengthening is forecast.  In fact, the SHIPS model suggests that
there is about 1 in 3 chance that Fausto could rapidly intensify.
This seems plausible, especially since it appears to have a
developing compact core in satellite images.  The NHC intensity
forecast remains at the high end of the model guidance and shows
Fausto becoming a hurricane tonight and approaching major hurricane
status in a couple of days.  Gradual weakening is expected toward
the end of the week once Fausto moves into an environment of
progressively cooler waters and drier air.
 
The storm is slowly gaining latitude, with the initial motion
estimated to be 295/11 kt.  Fausto will likely move toward the
northwest and slow down during the next day or two as it tracks
toward a weakness in the ridge left behind by Elida.  By Wednesday,
however, the global models show the ridge strengthening northeast of
the system, and that should cause Fausto to move faster to the
west-northwest and continue in that direction into the weekend.  The
NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and roughly
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 13.5N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 14.4N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 15.4N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 16.6N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 16.9N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 19.1N 136.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi