000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211448
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The storm has not become significantly better organized on 
satellite imagery so far this morning.  A large burst of very deep 
convection is occurring near or a little south of the estimated 
center with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Some convective 
banding features are evident over the southern through eastern 
periphery of the system.  Objective intensity estimates from 
UW-CIMSS using geostationary and microwave imagery indicate 
that the intensity remains near 40 kt.

Since the center is not clearly defined on satellite imagery at 
this time, the motion is uncertain but is estimated to be 310/10 
kt, nearly the same as in the previous advisory.  A mid- to
upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Baja California 
peninsula during the next day or two.  This will cause Odalys to 
turn sharply eastward, and steer the system east-northeastward to 
northeastward through the middle of the week between the flow of the 
trough and a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and Tropical 
Storm Polo. The latest NHC track forecast has again been shifted to 
the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the HCCA and GDMI 
track aids.
 
Odalys is continuing to be influenced by northerly vertical wind 
shear.  The Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates some relaxation of the 
shear in a day or so while the system remains over warm sea surface
temperatures and within a moist environment. This should allow for
some gradual strengthening during the next few days.  The official 
forecast remains at the high end of the intensity model guidance 
envelope, and is similar to the latest corrected consensus model, 
HCCA, prediction.  This is about the same as in the previous NHC 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 13.9N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 14.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 15.2N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.5N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 15.6N 127.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 15.8N 126.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 16.4N 124.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 17.7N 122.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch