995 
WTPZ41 KNHC 191442
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
800 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

The tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized, but 
convective banding features are not yet very prominent and the 
cloud pattern is somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast.  
Also, microwave imagery suggests that the system's inner core is not 
well defined at the moment.  The advisory intensity is held at 30 
kt in agreement with objective Satellite Consensus, SATCON, 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  

Although the center is a little difficult to locate, the best 
estimate of initial motion is 290/12 kt.  A mid-level subtropical 
ridge is currently situated the north of the depression with a 
weakness in the ridge to the northwest due to the departing 
Tropical Storm Elida.  As Elida moves farther north, the ridge is 
likely to gradually build westward.  This should result in a 
continued generally west-northwestward track with some reduction in 
forward speed during the next few days.  The official forecast 
track is very close to the previous one and in good agreement with 
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the corrected consensus, 
HCCA, track.

The environment ahead of the system is likely to remain quite 
conductive for strengthening, with one negative factor being the 
cooling of ocean waters due to the previous passage of Tropical 
Storm Elida.  Dynamical guidance shows low vertical wind shear 
during the next few days as reflected by the SHIPS model output.  
Therefore significant strengthening should occur with the cyclone 
becoming a hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.  The official 
intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and the SHIPS 
solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 12.4N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 12.8N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 13.7N 115.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 15.9N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 16.9N 121.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 17.5N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 18.4N 130.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch